Dr. Bart DiLiddo

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am so delighted that you're here tonight. And of course, I'm also delighted that I'm here. You know it's. Great to see so many longtime subscribers and also some new subscribers. So just spoke to a person that's been with us four months. It's wonderful. And you know, I just can't tell you how grateful I am, but I'm pleased to be here. On January the 1st of this year, Vector Vest celebrated its thirty 30th birthday. And we've been coming to Tampa, I would say at least 20 years. It's a tradition with us to kick off the year right here at Tampa. So everything is hunky Dory. So what I'm going to do tonight? I'm going to talk about how the market works. I got to figure out how this pointer works. Here it is. There we go. That's. I think that's the button. Yeah, there it. How the market works and what I'm going to talk about is what causes bull and bear markets. And when they begin and end. I find that to be one of the most interesting subjects to talk about when you're talking about stock market because. The worst thing that could happen to an investor is to be on the wrong side of the market. And I wrote an essay today about this subject. Because. On December the 29th in the news section of Vector Vest, there was a one liner that said. How I was wrong on the market in 2017 and I thought, well, I'll read that. And a gentleman who wrote it has a newsletter. And he admitted that.

Speaker

He.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

Was talking about a bear market before the end of this year. And then he goes on to say that he was bullish throughout this long bear market since 2009. And he finally follows up by saying he predicted a bear market in January 2016. Call that when I started investing in 1960.

Speaker

I.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

Didn't know anything about bull and bear markets. And so I read books and did everything I could to learn all I could about the stock market. I subscribed to various newsletters. And there wasn't one of them that ever mentioned a bear market. Now I asked this question earlier. Nobody got the right answer, but does anybody know other knows folks that know the answer? How many bear markets there were between 1960 and 1975? Anybody know? I'll tell you 6 there were 6 bear markets and nobody mentioned a single one. And then of course. In 1982. The market exploded in August of 1980. Interest rates came down and Greenspan became the new Fed chairman. And I was subscribing to a newsletter written by Joe Granville. Anybody remember Joe Granville? Yeah, he was the guru of all time. Well, when this market exploded, he said it was just a bunch of balloons going up in the air wasn't going to last, and it was going to end up badly. And it was. In other words, it was a false. It was a false rally. Well, that call cost Joe his business because he stayed bearish all the way into 1988. He didn't. He just stuck to his call and and it hurt Joe a lot. Up until that time, he pretty much had his way. So I think it's very, very important that we have a feeling. For what causes bull and bear markets and when they begin and end? So let's get started. The efficient market theory states that all market participants receive an act on all relevant information as soon as it becomes available. That sounds pretty good, doesn't it? But I have never received any relevant information. As soon as it is available. And the reason why is I'm not a participant. I've been in the market now for over 50 years, but I'm not a participant. The reason why is I haven't signed up with the news agencies to get their get their information as soon it is released. So I'm not a participant and so I, I I don't feel bad about that because it's my fault and also. What is relevant information anyway? Relevant information is any economic, financial, political, geopolitical, news, or anything else such as new products that cause share prices to rise or fall. Anybody ever hear Apple computer? They had a little problem with their batteries running dead earlier than expected, and it hurt Apple pretty bad. That was a product news, but usually anything happened. Anything happening with economics is big stuff. And there's a tremendous industry that goes into providing this information. And so everybody wants to leg up. Want to? They want to get that piece of information as soon as they can, since everybody supposedly gets it all at the same time, you know, makes it an even playing field. Everybody except you and I, of course. So let's move on. The efficient market, 30, implies that it is impossible to beat the market, since all relevant information is efficiently incorporated and reflected in share prices. That is reflected by the professors at the University of Chicago that preached the. The the random walk theory that you can't beat the market since everybody has the same information. 'S you know on an equal playing. So you can't beat the market. The only way that they say to make more money than the market outperform the market. Is to sign up to their service. That sounds reasonable, doesn't it? OK, the efficient market theory compels market participants to get relevant information sooner than anyone else and implemented faster than anywhere else. And to get it sooner. These companies, they will install their computers right next to the data centers right next to the stock exchanges. And to implement it faster. You ever hear of high frequency trading where they can make 100,000 trades in less than a second? Mean a split second means a lot to them. Now I happen to have one of those outfits in my backyard, so I'm OK that's a joke. So anyway, let's move on finally. Thomson Reuters delivers the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on a preferential basis. The data is released early clients at 954 minutes at 58 seconds AM. Regular paying customers get it at 9:55 and the public. You and I, we get it at 10:00 AM. So if. Split second means hundreds of thousands of trades of engine. What 5 minutes means it means all the money they want to make. At least for that day. So how does the average investor, in other words, you or I cope with this situation? We have to look at the big picture. And after after all of this for some time. It appears to me that we have to look at the big. Stock prices rise whenever the news implies that the economy is improving and earnings are rising. That sound reasonable? We also there are two other forces we have to think about. All relevant information is manifested by changes in earnings, inflation and interest rates. So those three things are what all we need to care about. Of the thousands of news items they come out every day, you don't even have to bother with that stuff. The only thing you need to look at is there any inflation in interest rates and that is talked about a lot. Let's go on. So let's look at earnings. Here's the a graph of the S&P 500. Oh, this thing goes back. I don't 10/12. Can you read the numbers at the bottom? 96. Well, it goes back about 20 years. Here's the price of the S&P 500 and here are the. This is a 50 day moving average, so it's a little bit skewed, but you can see the correlation is fantastic. So we conclude the next slide that stock prices increase with rising earnings. Anybody disagree with that? You know, we still have some booze out there if you want. This slide here is the S and P/E ratio versus the consumer price index from 1960 to December 2017. We're using a 20 week moving average here because the data is pretty wild. On the left in the blue, we have the S&P 500 and that's this line here and on the right we have the consumer price index percent change. And we can see that as ACPI goes up. The P/E ratio of stocks goes down and when the CPI goes down, the consumer price index goes up and so on. We finally came to 2008 and 2008. You know, this was a wild time. And now we're finally starting to recover from that major major. Anybody ever heard of that word? I learned that when I was in college.

Speaker

Thank you.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

That means a big move, and this all started. This graph started in 1960. When I started investing. Part of that nothing meant anything. That's like medieval ages, OK? So this is the important time in history here. Inflation stock prices decrease with rising inflation rates. I have a very interesting graph here. What we have is the S&P earnings yield versus 30 year T-bond interest yield. You might wonder what the earnings yield is. The earnings yield is the reciprocal of P/E ratio times 100. Everybody has heard about dividend yield. The dividend yield is simply the dividend that you receive divided by the price of the stock. So if you receive a $1.00 dividend and the stock price is $20, you know that the yield is 5%. And earnings yield is the same thing. If the earnings are $1.00 a share and the price is $20, earning 0 is $1.00. Like Ernie Ziel a whole lot more than I like P/E ratios because PPE ratios when you get down close to 0 P/E ratio goes sky high and when it is 0 it's infinite and I have to have an extra double header of Scots to understand. That means. OK. So we. I like to use earnings yield and what we have here. In the blue, we have the earnings yield. As I defined it. And on the red, we have the interest. So we see that when the interest yield goes up, that means when inflation went, interest rates go up, their earnings yields go up. And the earnings yields go up when the earnings go down, OK. All right. And the reason why is that when interest rates go up, it usually slows down the economy. When economy slows down, earnings per share is go down and the earnings yields go up because the earnings is in a denominator. No, it's an enumerator. I'm sorry. And the prices go down. This is this is very excellent correlation here. And the reverse happens too. Back in 1979, nineteen 80. The the interest yields was see that redlin hits 14% there. Remember that. The great time to buy bonds. And the P/E ratios were something like three and four. They were low and then a guy by the name of who was that guy. Was a Fed chairman. Oh, he came in. Wow, OK. But he raised interest. He raised them and raised them and raised them until, and his interest was to break the back of inflation, but he raised interest rates and finally. They started coming down and it came down, down, down, down, down, down. It's still coming down. OK. And here is 19 two 2008, 2009 again and you see the earnings yield is coming down also. So we have those three factors and what can we conclude? Let's go to the next slide. Next slide. I know this is a boring talk, Kathy, but you got to stay awake. You're mesmerized.

Speaker

My bound.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

All right, state stock prices decreased with rising interest rates. So let's sum it all up. Here we have stock prices go up when earnings go up, inflation goes down and interest rates go down. OK. Those are the three things we all look at now. What's interesting? Let's go on the next slide. What causes bull and bear markets? Earnings inflation and interest rates rise in a strengthening economy and fall in the weakening. The next thing we know is that the Federal Reserve Bank is mandated with the task of maintaining monetary stability and full unemployment full employment. So the Federal Reserve Bank has 2 mandates, 1 to stabilize the the monetary system and two to maintain full employment. But these two goals? Are incompatible. You either get one or the other, and so they're walking a tightrope. To maintain monetary stability, they raise interest rates to cool. Overheated economy because they're afraid of inflation. So. To maintain full employment, they lower interest rates to stimulate a weak economy. So when the economy is strong, the raise interest rates. The economy is weak. They lower interest rates. And if you've been following the market reasonably well, you know that they're always talking about inflation. Is a wild card. So let's move on. And I call this the virtuous vicious circle cycle. Inflation dictates the feds interest rate policy. Because they're always talking about inflation. When the economy was weak. Were lowering interest rates because they did not want inflation to go into deflation, and deflation is worse than inflation. So they wanted to maintain. A. Low enough interest rate to avoid deflation. And they set a target of they wanted 2%. A year? Core inflation. So interest rates then dictate the strength of the economy. While they lower, they lowered interest rates and they kept the economy going. Since 2008, 2000. And it slowly, slowly got was getting better. And as the economy gets better. It dictates earning growth and earnings growth gets better and better. Growth, in turn, dictates the stock price performance and few of us, only a few of us, can complain about what the stock market has done since 2009. I know there are some of us that will complain no matter what happens. I hear. I get calls from them all the time. OK. So the Fed policy actually dictates bull and bear markets. Have a lot to do with it. Those 6 bear markets that happened between 1960 and 1975. Does that sound like a reasonable natural cycle? No, they had people as head of the Federal Reserve, you know, at Jack interest rates up and down like like crazy. And so they were responsible for a lot of that, that up and down a business, OK. Move on. Now we at Vector Vest having recognized all of this, we monitor the level and trends of the earnings, inflation and interest rates. And we do this in the investment climate and investment climate is published each and every week in the vector of S views. I hope everybody here reads it. Do you all read it? Your hand, if you. You're a bunch of liars. I know that. So let's move on. What we what we have here? We have a situation where we know that rising earnings are good. And. Falling inflation is good and falling interest rates are good for stock prices, OK? And then they're bad. When they when they turn down, I have to say one thing about interest inflation, however. When the economy is weak, the Fed is lowering interest rates and wants to get inflation to start moving higher because it's afraid of. Of. Deflation and and rising interest rates when inflation rate when inflation is low. Right now, if it gets up to 2%, that's fine. You may even go up to 3%. But if it does. The Fed's going to start worrying. Prior to 2008, it would have to go up to four or 5% before the feds start acting. And raising interest rates. But the Fed already is raising interest rates because you had other. They spent a lot of money, you know, buying bonds and doing a lot of other stuff, but they're they're eager to try to get back to normal situation. Up. So we put all this together and we have 3 variables. With two conditions, they either go up or down and we will put that together. We have 8 cases. So we've identified every combination. So like E stands for earnings, U means up, F means inflation. I means interest rates and P means prices. So a bull market begins. When we see the first hint of inflation. Interest rate can still be going down. And the first hint of earnings power if somebody raises their prices at the bottom of a bear market, boy, that news will spread like wildfire. For example. In 2009. The thing that sparked this bull market was that word came out that Citibank made money in the first quarter. That's what that that is all that it took. And the market took off like a bird. So here's a situation where everything is going right. You've got rising earnings, decreasing inflation, decreasing interest rates and rising prices. This is what I call the Goldilocks scenario. Because in our valuation formulas that we have in Chapter 3. My book. Prices go up big time when earnings go up, inflation goes down, interest rates go down. So Bull Market tries here, but this this situation doesn't like to last too long and. Relatively seldom get a situation where inflation is going down and interest rates are going up. So finally we get into what we call. The case for scenario. Where earnings, inflation and interest rates are going up and prices are going up and we've been in this scenario now for a long time. Case for situations last a long time. 'Cause this is where everything is going up and it's still a bull market because earnings are going up and the Fed is careful about raising interest rates normally. And so this is this is a situation where we are climbing a wall of worry. People are worried about when is it going to end. And that sort of stuff. And people are always talking about the end of the bull market and yadda yadda yadda. And one of The thing is, psychologically, when you're coming off of a bear market, a bottom of a bear market, investors are looking for anything, anything at all that could spark a rally. And they take the economic news and they spin it. It's always good. When they're in a situation like we are now a case 4 situation. They generally take economic news that if if it's a hint like Aceo says, well, you know our cell, he comes in with. Blockbuster earnings and the price of the stock goes up, and then he says towards the end of his talk. But next year it might not be as strong as this past year. Bingo stock drops 20%. You've seen it over and over again. People are worried they made their profits. Don't want to lose them? And so they got to climb that wall worry. OK. Now the thing this looks very complicated and I made it that way because we get a higher price for a product. But it really is very simple. E stands for earnings and note that every time earnings are going up, we're a bull market situation. Every time. Ernies go. We're in a bear market situation, so the thing we have to watch and watch very carefully is earnings per share. And what we do is we look at the average earnings per share. We look at forecasted earnings per share of the S&P 500 stocks 'cause. That is where the best data is. And the data is readily available and this is where you know the big money follows the S&P 500 very closely. So let's move on, Kathy. Bear markets begin when the economy is strong. Inflation and interest rates are high and earnings are expected to fall. I'll answer that last part in a minute. So let's go to the next slide on Friday, November 2nd, 2007, I wrote an essay about buying Contra ETFs and Warren readers that yesterday's confirm down signal. Could be the entree to a long bear market. Why did I say that? Because we track earnings, the earnings trend indicator very, very carefully and we can see this thing. Went up rather dramatically from the from the bear market bottom of 2003 to going higher and higher and it started coming down. Was going. It was going down and going down and we're tracking it. And that earnings trend indicator has to stay above 1. For it to say we're still in a bull market because if it goes below 1 then it's in a downtrend. So we were tracking that and that is that is actually based on an earnings forecast. When the analysts start lowering their forecast. It's a sure sign that trouble is brewing OK. So let's move on. So from November this November the 1st when we got to Seattle signal. To March, the 10th of 2009, when the market exploded. This is what happened to the price of the vector vest composite. OK. That's not a pretty picture. Unless you were short. And of course you. To remember. Vector vest advise its subscribers to buy Contra ETFs. Know what a Contra ETF is? You do. That's why she's wearing that very expensive dress. Contra ETF's go up when the market goes out. And we wrote an essay and explained it. And we could have a lot of fun with that, but. So this is this is when the bull market bear market was was identified. Actually, the earnings trend indicator. Cross below one in February of 2008. So we did it months ahead of at a time. What you can see is started coming down and and we have not only the ability to sense. When the when the bull and bear market scenario is topping out, but we time the market, we don't predict it, we time it. Track. We follow it where market followers, we don't predict it. Let's go on, Kathy. Bull markets are born when the economy is weak. Inflation and interest rates are low and earnings are expected to rise. Just the opposite. OK. And let's look at the scenario back in early 2009 on Friday, March the 6th, a little in case you may have forgotten. You know, Obama was inaugurated in 2009. And. The economy was in big. Huge trouble because of the housing bubble.

Speaker

Mm.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

And you know all those bonds and everything that were sold. So the world was gripped in a financial crisis. Of monumental proportions, and I mean that. The S&P was down 57% from its all time high of 1265. On that morning, it was a Friday. 651,009 non farm jobs were lost in February and the unemployment rate hit 8.1 percent. Now a lot of people think that was pretty bad. But in 1980 it hit 10%. Some of us remember that. I was running VF Goodrich Chemical at that point in time and we were the world's largest producer of Poly vinyl chloride. And. I think Carter was president then. And he implemented a credit spree F freeze and we sold a lot of PVC on credit. People made siding and pipe and everything else with it. And before you know it, the rail cars were coming back to us full. It never happened before. 50 years, A company was making that stuff. Course, I was lucky when it happened while I was President. That company. But anyway, that credit freeze? Really. And so I was relating what was happening. In 2008 and 2009, to what I experienced in 1979 and 1980. You know, I'd been there and I'd done that once already. So. It wasn't anything new, but it was pretty bad. So. The situation and and then after Obama became president, the market just kept getting clobbered over and over and over again, and kept going down and down and down. We saw it in a previous slide. Investors were looking for any hint of good news. On Friday, March, the six I wrote an essay called Itching the Rally and said we would go along with one of the following strategies if an explosive explosive rally occurs and I listed these 6. There's five there, these five bottom fishing strategies. And you know, this wasn't all black magic because we tracked the market and those of you who have been with us a long time know that we have a we have an indicator called the Buy sell ratio and that buy sell ratio when it goes down below point. Zero. In other words, it's one by and 20 cells. Right. No, that's point 5.2. It goes. It's bottoming out. And so we were tracking that. But the trigger to me is on the next slide. Vector vest advised aggressive investors to be alert for Toler. We said for those who are writing the way we are playing, the downside of the market, we will exit these positions that go along with the following strategies of explosive rally occurs. The thing that was interesting to me. Is we had that terrible. Jobs report. The market opened up to the downside, but then went up. It went up. People were saying, well, 651,000 jobs lost could have been worse. So they started buying stocks. This was on a Friday. OK, so let's go on. Monday opened up and it was a wishy washy day so we didn't do anything and then Citibank came out and said they made money in the first quarter and the market exploded. Absolutely exploded. I went along with. No, Contra ETF's at 10:00 AM because we were advising our subscribers wait until 10:00 AM. The top ten stocks were up 31.92% in three days. They're up 117.59% in a month 660.73 in a year and 1715 and 8.81% in 12 months. 12/21 that was absolutely the buying opportunity of a lifetime. The. The prices were so low it was unbelievable. A lot of people made a lot of money in a big hurry. I haven't seen anything like that happen until recently with some of. Marijuana stocks. I mean, they were going crazy until somebody in Washington put the kibosh on the whole thing. We'll talk about that later. OK. So. So we nailed the top and we nailed the bottom. Let's go on, Kathy. And here's what it looked like March the 10th all the way to September 22nd, 2017. And it's still going. And even today. I wrote the essay today about the the naysayers still saying this market isn't going to keep going. So the question is. Will it keep going or not? And how are we going to know? OK. Let's move on. Current situation, the US market is in case for bull market scenario, that's earnings inflation and interest rates are rising. And what did I say? From the truth chart, if earnings are rising, we're in a we're in. A bull market scenario, OK. And we have to start seeing evidence that earnings are starting to go down before we will change that. So, Kathy, could we go into the database and see if we can find the market climate graph? Let's see, we got this is the earnings trend indicator put the earnings per share on. Put it cancel cancel on both and put the earnings per share above. I like to see that above. The white line is the earnings per share and ladies and gentlemen, this is a 50 day moving average of the earnings. The average of all the stocks in the S&P 500, OK and. This is the. No, that's not at bottom. Why is that? Keep going on the top. There you go, you got it. Alright, this is the earnings per. It's a lot like the S&P 5. Down below we have what we call the earnings trend indicator and you could see it did go down. In 2016, and it dipped again here. And the reason for that was because the oil companies in the S&P 500 were getting killed. And we recognize that and even though the ETI was below one, we said OK. The truth started saying we're in a bear market scenario. Well, we were cautioning our readers and saying, hey, look, if we take if we take all the oil companies out of the S and. 5. The and there were about 50 of them. The rest of the companies were going gangbusters. So we cautioned our subscribers not to be not to be sidetracked by this, OK. And so the royal Company started recovery in fact in the database you can find. Three watch list, one says. S&P 500. That's the standard, one says. No petrol. That's the other companies without the petroleum companies, and one says all pet petrol you can look look at those three slides. We are the only ones in a country that are doing anything like that now. Was at a money show and I showed it to people. And. They weren't impressed. And I thought, you know, This is why you've got people telling you there's a bull market, there's a bear market. Markets overvalued all this gobbledygook. They just don't understand and they don't want to believe. Nevertheless, we charge on. There they are. See see here. Put put the slide of the SP500 up. Do that average graph. The one on the bottom.

Speaker

Well.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

Now these are forecasted eps's what we do. Ladies and gentlemen, we buy earnings forecast for reiters. We take that forecast and we tie it to the trailing 12 months and the forecast is out two years. And the trailing is back here. And we interpolate between the two and we March forward towards that towards that earnings forecast a week at a time. And this is what we see. Kathy, go. Go back 5. Let's take a look at. This. Here this here is a result of. The the downturn in the in the oil companies and you see it's getting lesser and lesser. Let's let's look at the let's look at the earnings curve. Without the oil companies. All no petrol. Watch. You're going to see something. 2 five years.

Speaker

Select.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

Here we go. Now that's that's an impressive. An impressive record. Let's look at the. The oil Petro. And I'm happy to say that the petroleum industry is recovering. And if you're a bottom fishing type person, do five years. You have five years. Here we go. This is peaked here. It peaked here in. About June July of 20/15/2020.

Speaker

Unit 14.

Dr. Bart DiLiddo

14 and it started coming down, down, down and the earnings peaked later. Is this is a 50 day moving? Negative. That could positive, negative, and now they're rising nicely and oil is back above $50 a share. Cold winner is helping out a lot of things. Helping out, but. Prices are back up above $60.00 a share, and the frackers are coming back. And the factors are the one that broke the back of OPEC. And it's not the little guys this time. The big guys, the exons, the shells. Are coming back. And the chevrons are coming back and they're going into fracking big time. So we're able to see this whole thing all over again. And the Saudis know that they got they got trouble down the road. Now there is a country. Anybody ever hear of Parkinson's? Well. Parkinson was an English economist. And years ago, he studied what was going on with the British Navy. And he saw that many years ago. They had most of the Navy personnel was on ships at sea. Very little was in headquarters then as the years went by, fewer and fewer of the personnel were on ships and more and more was in headquarters. So he formulated a number of laws. One is that expenditures will always rise to meet income. And I know that's a fact because it happened in my family. Happens in your family. Does it? The more money you make, the more you want to spend. Or if you have a job to do. The time it takes to get it done. Will always rise to meet the deadline. So if you want something done in a hurry, give them a short deadline. If you're not in a hurry, make it long and nobody will start working on it until two weeks before it's ready. It's. It's a it's it's. It's almost like the law of gravity. Never fails. When I was running the chemical company, people would come in to me and say, you know, Doctor Daniel, we need more help and blah blah blah. Know we need four or five. So you had 4-5 people, you had these five people, aggressive people. Less work. I seen it happen over and over again. So you got to be careful. And so what's going to happen? And while I was talking about the Saudi, I was in Saudi Arabia. Oh my God. 8384 something like that. And they were already talking about money problems and they had money coming out of their ears. We were selling some technology and they didn't want to pay what we were asking. But anyway, but they got they they became so used to spending money. Of money. That when these oil prices drop, they really got hurt and they're hurt. Now, you know. And they were talking about. Going public with Aramco. And. I don't know whether they're going to do it because there there you got real money problems. Once a lot of the lot of the native Saudis don't work, they just get money off the government. So anyway, that's another story. But but this is the inside story. We're the only ones in the country that saw this, at least that I'm aware of. But these are facts. All right, let's move on, Kathy. So we're near the end here. The US market is in a case for world market scenario inflation, earnings, inflation, earning season rising and the bull market will continue as long as it is perceived that earnings are rising. OK. Let's take another look at that market climate graph. Earnings and BBC. And go back 10 years this time or 15 years, or the whole smelly. Take it back as far as it'll go. We actually started doing this in 2003. OK. And when we started doing it, earnings were way up here. And could you zoom in in this area here, Kathy? We could see that the earnings were way above 1 and and they came down and they came down and we we we watched it, we watched it, we talked about it and talked about it. And so we signal we signal that the onset of the serious bear market. Could be upon us. Of course, it didn't take a lot to see that because the housing the housing bubble was collapsing around our ears long before that. You know the the. Companies like. That so mortgages were in trouble. And and there there was a lot of noise to go along with it, but it's nice to have some data that corroborates it and earnings crash. Now I I didn't expect earnings to crash this badly but but it was bad and. Not too many of us heard about, you know, these bundles of mortgages they packaged and they mixed. Mixed them. Very risky mortgages with the. Safe mortgages and a classified the whole bundle is safe. There's a lot of bad stuff going on, but that's what happens and. So. You you are in a. What I'm trying to accomplish with this presentation is to let you know. That if you deal with facts, you're a lot better off than if you deal with speculation and guesswork. And we don't guess we deal with facts. And we've been doing it now for a long time. And I believe very strongly in this model. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen.